Venezuela Ripostes

There is much to ‘unpack’ regarding the recent arrest and indictment of Nicolás Maduro, a gentleman personating the President of Venezuela.

Venezuela benighted

The U.S. has long considered South and Latin America as its backyard. In an 1895 border dispute between Venezuela and British Guiana, then U.S. Secretary of State Richard Olney warned Great Britain that “To-day the United States is practically sovereign on this continent, and its fiat is law.”  And the CIA has had a presence in South America from before the agency was actually constituted in its present form. They were in Caracas in 1958 when Vice President Nixon’s car was attacked by an angry mob. And they were there last August, scoping an audacious effort to collar Mr. Maduro. In December 2025, in the wake of an extensive campaign to disrupt Venezuela’s illicit drug and oil operations, the U.S. reportedly offered Maduro safe passage to Turkey, which he rejected.

With the largest proven oil reserves in the world, Venezuela was an economic powerhouse from the 1950s to the 1990s. Then in 1999 it decided to elect as President, Hugo Chávez, leader of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela. Completely ignoring the warnings of the likes of Fred Hayek, Chávez declared an “economic war” on “the rich,” creating one of the worst economic crises in history, marked by deficit spending, price controls, hyperinflation, escalating starvation, disease, crime, and mortality rates, resulting in massive emigration and the skeddadling of foreign capital, which caused its oil production to plummet. Some 8 million Venezuelans left the country during the Chávez/Maduro administrations, the largest diaspora in the history of the Americas.

Attending this catastrophe were swingeing human rights violations, suppression of the press, manipulation of electoral laws, and the arrest and exile (or worse) of government critics. President Maduro, elected in 2013, continued the Chávez policies, as the country worsened.

In 2018, Nicolás Maduro “won” the election and international governments (along with the Organisation of American States) refused to accept it (except China, Russia, and Iran – see “Oil, Drugs and Guns” below). Maduro’s own former Chief of Staff, Temir Porras, said that Maduro “delivered practically nothing in terms of public policy, in terms of direction [because] he does not have a clear vision for the country. He is very much focused on consolidating his power among his own peers in Chavismo and much less on exercising or implementing a strategic vision for the country.” Stating that Maduro was essentially a ‘narco-terrorist,’ the Biden administration issued a bounty on his head, in the sum of $25 million (U.S.).

The Delta Force Operation

The early January pre-dawn raid was sanctioned by President Trump about Christmas 2025 but he left implementation-timing to the Pentagon and its special forces. Apparently, some people were in the loop, including staff of The New York Times and The Washington Post, but an embargo on disclosure was observed. Early Saturday morning, a cyberoperation cut power to much of Caracas, shrouding the city in darkness to allow the planes, drones and helicopters to approach undetected. Bombing of radar installations and radio transmission towers occurred – about 40 Venezuelans, mostly military personnel but some civilians, were killed.

Helicopters descended upon the compound in which Maduro was located and soldiers forced entry. Mr. and Mrs. Maduro fled towards a steel-reinforced room on site but were apprehended, flown to the U.S. and jailed in Brooklyn to face federal drug trafficking charges (the indictment is linked at the foot of this article). Maduro and his wife pleaded not guilty on Monday, 5 January 2026. Mr. Maduro declared: “I am innocent. I am not guilty. I am a decent man. I am still president of my country.” The next hearing is scheduled for 17 March 2026.

Confused reactions

Condemnation from the likes of China, Russia and Iran (The Revolutionary Theocracy of Iran, as of writing, might soon be a footnote) will only make President Trump’s head swell further. Domestically, the reflexive opposition to Trump reveals a fair measure of political hypocrisy.

New York Senator Chuck Schumer (image below) called the operation “lawless…creating an endless war.” But in the Senate in 2020, he said of Trump’s first term: “The president brags about his Venezuela policy? Give us a break…He hasn’t brought an end to the Maduro regime. The Maduro regime is more powerful today and more entrenched today than when the president began.”  And, further, Maduro was “an illegitimate dictator who continues to oppress his own people” and he also said that the U.S. must stand with Venezuelans to restore democracy. Former Vice President Kamala Harris has been a very vocal critic, but previously, as a Senator and then VP, stated: “Maduro has attacked democratic institutions and violated the human rights of the Venezuelan people” and “Maduro’s authoritarian rule has brought Venezuela to the brink of disaster. We must support the Venezuelan people and restore democracy.”

VIVA VENEZUELA LIBRE!

Meanwhile, Venuzuelans are celebrating all over the world (see main image), though the celebrations, probably heartfelt, are more muted in Caracas. Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, whom Maduro banned from running in the last election, doubtless because she would have won in a landslide, appeared on the balcony of Oslo’s Grand Hotel and undertook to personally give her Nobel Peace Prize to Trump.

The Legal Questions

Critics of this operation have argued it contravened both U.S. and International Law.

We can dispense with the objection under U.S. Law fairly quickly: The U.S. Constitution, Article II, Section 2, Clause 1, relevantly states:

The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States, and of the Militia of the several States, when called into the actual Service of the United States; he may require the Opinion, in writing, of the principal Officer in each of the executive Departments, upon any Subject relating to the Duties of their respective Offices, and he shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offences against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.

“Under the Constitution, the President, in addition to being Chief Executive, is Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy. He holds the prime responsibility for the conduct of United States foreign relations. These duties carry very broad powers, including the power to deploy American forces abroad and commit them to military operations when the President deems such action necessary to maintain the security and defense of the United States.” [Leonard C. Meeker, The Legality of United States Participation in the Defense of Viet Nam, 54 Dep’t State Bull. 474, 484–485 (1966).]

Furthermore, if you characterize the operation as that of law enforcement rather than regime change, Congressional approval is neither indicated nor necessary (and on a practical level, would have undermined the mission). See the Maduro indictment linked below, alleging narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine-importation conspiracy, possession of machine guns and destructive devices, and conspiracy to possess machine guns and destructive devices against the United States, and the ordering of “kidnappings, beatings, and murders against those who owed them drug money.”

International Law

Geoffrey Robertson KC, who knows a lot about the niceties of International Law, suggested, seriously, that “There is no legal difference between Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attack on Ukraine and US President Donald Trump’s attack on Venezuela…The UN Charter of 1945 proclaims its purpose of saving succeeding generations from the scourge of war and Article 2(4) lays down the fundamental rule that a UN member must never invade another except in self-defence.”*

We could dicker about an expanded definition of self-defence (see “Oil and Drugs and Guns”, below) but instead, before we invoke Nuremberg and liken Trump to Hermann Goering (apart from their respective waist sizes), let’s take a deep breath and compare an unprovoked war of territorial conquest to a “three-hour flyover.” As of writing, there are no Yankee ‘boots on the ground’. Don’t make the error of those afflicted by T.D.S., falling for the Trumpian bombast of “We’re in Charge” – we’ve heard that before, vis-à-vis Iran, Gaza, Ukraine, even Greenland. This is not even an old-style British punitive expedition. And just how do you approach a country and seek the extradition of its dictator and his criminal cabal? Is ‘International Law’ even fit for purpose in such an instance? To paraphrase the late E.G. Whitlam, “Certainly the impotent are pure.”

Robertson aptly quotes Thucydides: “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” It was, is and ever will be, thus, in geopolitics. One can bleat about international law from the rooms of the UN Human Rights Council, the International Criminal Court, Doughty Street Chambers, or the global cocktail circuit, but adults are in charge. The indictment, if supported by credible evidence and if accepted by a jury, is damning. Maduro will claim head-of-state immunity, but to do so successfully, he’ll have to prove he is a legitimate head of state, and in that effort, he’ll struggle. Mr. Robertson does refer to “Panamanian leader General Manuel Noriega (who was at least guilty of drug-trafficking)” and surely this constitutes an international precedent?

Robertson KC claims: “There can be no quibble about the purpose of the US invasion, namely to change the government regime.” President Trump isn’t forcing regime change in Venezuela. He is on the record for decades (particularly on Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan) as being against American foreign occupations. As a presidential candidate, he said “We will break the cycle of regime change… [no more] reckless, interventionist, globalism…We must abandon the failed policy of nation-building and regime change that Hillary Clinton pushed in Iraq, in Libya, in Egypt, and in Syria,” What he is interested in is the new Cold War, and his desire for strategic (as opposed to tactical) hegemony in the West, which you can either applaud or deprecate. He may well be prone to hubris, but has suppressed that successfully (to date).**

Oil and Drugs and Guns

Oil

Rosneft, the Russian-State oil giant, poured $9 billion into Venezuela over a nine-year period, via “loans,” plus the supply of weapons, including air defence systems and specialist training. This gave Russia a workaround for crude, in the shadow of international sanctions and embargos, as well as geo-political leverage, and it helped Maduro monster his citizens. But unlike Russian meddling in, say, Syria, Iran, or certain African states, in the case of Venezuela, ‘the big red dog was digging in the Yanks’ backyard.’ President Putin will be seething on Venezuela: he’s lost his foothold in Syria, possibly in Iran, and now, perhaps, Venezuela. The elite residential district of Rublyovka will be overloaded with failed dictators soon, if not already.

China buys the bulk of its oil from Venezuela, and a large part of the balance from Iran (Cuba relies heavily on Venezeula for oil as well). Iran is wobbling, and if China loses up to 70% of its oil supplies, it will struggle to start WWIII, to dominate rare earths around the world, to invade Taiwan, or to lead the unregulated, uncertain race to AI. China has also invested heavily in military infrastructure in Venezuela. The so-called ‘invasion’ of Venezuela is Trump’s bold stroke in a burgeoning cold war. Some may wish the USA to lose that war, but one can’t really quibble over its moves to avoid that. Incidentally, under Trump 2.0, the U.S. is basically energy-independent (Minister Chris Bowen, please take note) and so any sequestration of increased oil will now, or in the long term at least, benefit Venezuela, as opposed to the enemies and adversaries of the West.

Drugs

The Cartel de los Soles (‘Cartel of the Suns’) is one of the filthiest, nastiest, drug syndicates in the business, run by the junta generals of the (former) Maduro Government. It sells tons of fentanyl-laced cocaine to the U.S. and Europe. It also conducts illegal mining, money laundering, piracy, and smuggling. It negotiated multi-ton cocaine shipments and weapons to FARC, the Colombian guerrilla group. Obviously, these people remain in place. But along with ‘double-tap’ drone-bombs on high-speed drug boats, the Maduro charges might present a salutary warning. After all, when you confront international drug gangs, better to be Eliot Ness than Inspector Plod. By the way, all this sorts somewhat ill with Trump’s pardon of Juan Orlando Hernandez, the former president of Honduras, who was convicted of drug trafficking. Trump evidently had advice that the conviction was unfair. But the fact that the U.S. maintains a small military presence there, and that the two countries conduct joint peacekeeping, counter-narcotics, humanitarian, disaster relief, humanitarian, medical and civic action exercises plus substantial trade, probably helps.

Guns

Apart from military infrastructure, Maduro’s international pals have been fomenting terrorism. The island of Margarita off the coast of Venezuela is linked to China, Russia, and Iran, and on which Hezbollah trains young Venezuelans in jihad death-craft.

Whither Venezuela?

Former envoy to Venezuela, Elliott Abrams, told CNN: The U.S. “cannot run Venezuela. It would be extremely difficult. You know, it’s a very big country. It’s twice the size of California, 25 million people, roughly. It’s too complex for us to run”.

Newly sworn-in President Delcy Rodríguez is a Maduro ally, as is her cohort. But she sits under a sword of Damocles: if she aggressively pursues Chavism, she’ll know that she might be next. The question is whether the U.S. can pull some strings from afar. That is clearly what Trump means to do. He wants the axis of U.S. opposition sent packing; international investment, particularly oil production and refining resumed (with appropriate embargoes), and free and fair elections. This will take a substantial period of time, of course.

Can the ‘Art of the Deal’ prevail in Venezuela? Who knows? The one thing about Donald Trump is that he engages in transactional 3D chess. And after the initial blast from then Vice-President Rodríguez, as newly sworn-in President, she issued the following statement:

“We invite the US government to collaborate with us on an agenda of cooperation oriented towards shared development within the framework of international law to strengthen lasting community coexistence. We prioritize moving towards balanced and respectful international relations between the United States and Venezuela, and between Venezuela and other countries in the region, premised on sovereign equality and non-interference.“

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